On a recent episode of the China in the World podcast, Paul Haenle spoke with Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby, Associate Professor in the Department of International Studies of De La Salle University in Manila, Philippines, about Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s visit to Beijing amid changing dynamics in China-Philippines relations. A portion of their conversation, which has been edited and condensed for clarity, is below.
Paul Haenle: From January 3-5, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. paid a state visit to Beijing, along with a 200-member delegation of senior officials and business leaders. Marcos Jr. and Xi Jinping signed 14 bilateral cooperation agreements, including over $20 billion in new investment pledges, and agreed to manage maritime differences amicably. On the surface, it appears to have been a successful visit. How significant was the meeting for Philippines-China relations?
Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby: All eyes were on the visit. Not only was it President Marcos’ first visit of the year, it was also his first visit to China. The economy was a major focus of the meeting. The talks resulted in $22.8 billion worth of bilateral investment pledges and 14 bilateral agreements focused on tourism, trade, information exchange, and other initiatives. In the Philippines, many viewed the meeting as a success because new investments will help the country’s economy recover to pre-pandemic levels. Nonetheless, the focus on investment deals brings to mind former President Rodrigo Duterte’s approach to China. Under Duterte’s regime, the Philippines received many investment pledges from China, but the inability of Duterte to deliver on these investment pledges eventually became his downfall. Unless the new pledges under President Marcos translate into tangible development projects, the Marcos administration risks the same criticism as Duterte.
Paul Haenle: I remember being in Beijing in 2o16 when President Duterte met with Xi Jinping, resulting in a similarly large number of investment agreements. At the time, there were questions about whether such agreements would come to fruition. It sounds like this could present risks to Marcos as well. You write in a recent commentary for Think China that, while Marcos’ visit to China reaped economic opportunities, it was a missed opportunity for the President to leverage the 2016 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) arbitral award in favor of the Philippines. In your view, what was not done during the Marcos-Xi meeting that could have been done?
Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby: The 2016 UNCLOS arbitration is one “weapon” that the Philippines has not been using to its advantage. Six years after UNCLOS ruled in favor of the Philippines, we are better off than yesterday; but I hope that tomorrow will be better than today. As early as 2016, the Philippines missed its chance to do more to leverage the award. We could have used the opportunity to convene friends and partners to uphold the international order. To be fair, Duterte’s pivot to China managed to lower tensions between the two countries. But sadly, this was at the expense of the Philippines’ national interests. More could have been done to leverage the award to tell China that what it was doing in the West Philippine Sea was wrong, while still managing to maintain friendly relations with China in the economic sphere.
Marcos has made strong statements with respect to the Philippines’ maritime interests. In his state of the nation address, he said that the Philippines would not give up an inch of its territory and sovereignty. Then again, we also heard strong statements from Duterte. If you recall, early in Duterte’s campaign, he even promised to ride a jet ski to the contested waters of the South China Sea to plant the Philippine flag. And despite all of those statements, look at how his administration approached China.
Most Filipinos welcome the strong rhetoric of President Marcos, but we should wait and see whether these statements bear fruit. One way for Marcos to translate rhetoric into tangible benefits for the Philippines would be to leverage the 2016 arbitration award. Marcos rarely mentions the arbitration award during international engagements. The second way that the Philippines can leverage the award is to continue to modernize its armed forces. Right now, the Department of National Defense is bogged down with what I call a “musical chairs dance.” The administration remains focused on appointing new personnel rather than moving forward with modernization efforts.
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