Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Russia’s influence in Africa is likely to be diminished by any outcome of the war in Ukraine. And Western governments will need to take Africa into their confidence regarding geopolitical matters rather than berate the sovereign stances of countries that feel unseen and neglected by them.
Moscow’s fixation on regime security and the interaction between domestic and foreign policy has been continually highlighted across the past decades and currently continues apace.
Russia’s cyber operations in Ukraine have apparently not had much military impact. This was probably for a multitude of reasons: Russia’s offensive limitations, as well as the defensive efforts of Ukraine and its partners; the particular context of this war, as well as structural features of cyberspace and warfare generally.
Russia has achieved far less via cyber warfare in Ukraine than many Western observers expected. Many aspects of Moscow's approach to cyber operations have been misunderstood and overlooked.
The balance in Russian-Indian relations is shifting decidedly toward New Delhi. Russia’s break with the West and ever closer ties with China as a result of the war against Ukraine will make sustaining its partnership with India more challenging.
Rather than consolidating Russian society, the conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated existing divisions on a diverse array of issues, including support for the regime. Put another way, the impression that Putin now has the full support of the Russian public is simply incorrect.
The war in Ukraine has cemented the Russian-Chinese partnership for the foreseeable future. While focusing all of its efforts to the West, the last thing Russia needs is a confrontation with China.
As governments find more effective ways to carry out internet shutdowns, citizens and democracies need more effective ways to combat them.
The challenge for Western policymakers is to avoid viewing Russian activism in the Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa through an exclusively zero-sum lens. The region’s political disarray, complexities, and especially the unpredictability of local rulers all present built-in buffers to Russian influence—as they do to all external players.
Russia has returned as a major actor in the Mediterranean. Yet a closer look at its economic tool kit in this region suggests concerns about Russian economic capabilities are likely overstated.