Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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There is no question that Washington’s position in the broader Middle East was dented by the fiasco in Afghanistan. Ultimately, however, U.S. assets in the region are still unrivaled: the United States’ political and economic influence, hard power, soft power, embrace of multilateral diplomacy, and leadership of a rules-based global order continue to give it the upper hand over all its rivals.
The Trump administration always made it fairly clear that it was far less interested in a two-state solution than in facilitating ties between Israel and the Arab states—a veritable 22-state solution.
Trump’s predictions of a “foundation of comprehensive peace” and “dawn of a new Middle East” are premature. If left unattended by Trump or a potential successor, the Israel-Palestinian conflict will fester, leaving Palestinians’ national ambitions unfulfilled.
The discovery of hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean has raised tensions in the region. Europe must act to to prevent an actual war from breaking out between Greece and Turkey.
Israel’s normalization of relations with the UAE and Bahrain is more transactional than transformative.
Before Washington starts providing unconditional support to another Arab authoritarian, the United States should be clear about what it wants out of the relationship and how it should use the leverage it has with the UAE to achieve those outcomes.
Whether the Israel-UAE deal holds and has an enduring impact on the region will depend on several factors.
Perhaps a more accurate way to evaluate this agreement is the consolidation and formalization of ties that have been in the works, largely subterranean, for a decade or more. But the strategic impact, at least for now, won’t be nearly as consequential as Israel’s peace treaties.
The loss of the Arab world’s commitment to an end of Israel’s occupation as a precondition for Middle East peace will spell the death knell for a negotiated political solution.
Israel’s plans to annex parts of the West Bank may have been temporarily suspended, but anyone who believes the world is any closer to a negotiation, let alone an agreement to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is mistaken.