Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Russia’s invasion has mobilized Ukrainians from all walks of life in pursuit of a common goal. But as the war goes on, the country will have to face new economic, political, and social challenges.
Russia’s technology imports are recovering in defiance of Western sanctions. A key element in that equation: illicit, Beijing-supported shipments through Hong Kong.
The IMF approved an unprecedented four-year, $15.6-billion program for Ukraine. While the program is a significant step toward ensuring the country’s economic stability, Ukraine must pursue several reforms for financing to continue. Meanwhile, the international community should make hard commitments beyond 2024.
Russia’s hybrid attacks have strengthened Ukraine’s social cohesion and public resolve. To further enhance Ukrainian resilience, the EU should share best practices, expand sanctions, and support the country’s democratic reforms.
The war can continue along three possible scenarios: a stalemate, Ukraine wins, or Russia wins. For now, a Ukrainian breakthrough in the south of the country could be as likely to trigger a dramatic escalation of the war as to end it.
In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU is seeking to fulfill its defense potential. But promising new defense policy proposals may lose momentum without more funds and attention.
Nothing in Putin’s record suggests that he will stop trying to drag Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In fact, Putin’s consistent, persistent policy toward Europe and the United States, together with Ukraine’s critical place between Russia and the Western alliance, suggests that he is not about to change course.
The EU must build a new set of ambitious policies that treats Russia as a major threat to peace and stability in Europe, while continuing to engage with its people. A longer-term Russia strategy begins with a “Ukraine First” policy.
International efforts to support Ukrainian cyber defense have delivered increased capabilities and capacity while harnessing the potential of a diverse array of actors. But those involved are not declaring victory and will need concrete steps to sustain momentum.
External interference in the West’s domestic affairs has prompted the European Parliament to consider tightening restrictions on foreign funding and individuals. The EU must tackle this challenge without eroding civic spaces or limiting support for civil society.