Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Climate change stands to impact each leg of the U.S. nuclear triad in different and increasingly serious ways. Given the high-stakes nature of the nuclear enterprise, the Department of Defense and other key stakeholders must better prepare for, mitigate, and adapt to these climate challenges.
The U.S. and Chinese governments, for the foreseeable future, will have the resources to keep each other’s society vulnerable to nuclear mass destruction.
One of the most salient issues that surfaced in this study is the projected medium-term increase in the vulnerability of silo-based ICBMs to attack by precision conventional weapons.
Cyber threats to nuclear command, control, and communications systems (NC3) attract increasing concerns. Carnegie and partners have developed a platform of unclassified knowledge to enable U.S.-China engagement on this issue.
To quickly lower the risk of nuclear escalation, manage arms racing, and avoid a breakdown in future treaty negotiations, the United States, Russia, and China should consider five politically binding proposals to build transparency and confidence.
Strategic arms control is more vital than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Pragmatic negotiations toward a follow-on treaty need to begin now.
While both countries may think the situation is under control, dismissive attitudes and misperceptions could end up fueling a dangerous competition.
If some nuclear arsenals and operational plans are especially likely to threaten the global environment and food supply, all states would benefit from actions to reduce such risks.
Regardless of the prospects of denuclearizing North Korea, the United States and South Korea are likely to continue strengthening capabilities to deter North Korean coercive behavior. Yet, as they do this, it will become increasingly important to assess the regional implications of their actions.
Opponents and skeptics fear that the dynamics surrounding a nuclear ban treaty will distract attention and effort from the nonproliferation regime that has helped prevent nuclear war since 1945, and that has prevented the proliferation of nuclear weapons to more states and to terrorist organizations.