Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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With Ukraine’s membership in NATO still a distant prospect, Kyiv and the West must reach consensus now on a realistic long-term security arrangement. Codified multiyear commitments to train and equip Ukraine’s military, support for the country’s indigenous defense industry, and clear links to its EU accession process will be key.
The balance in Russian-Indian relations is shifting decidedly toward New Delhi. Russia’s break with the West and ever closer ties with China as a result of the war against Ukraine will make sustaining its partnership with India more challenging.
Rather than consolidating Russian society, the conflict in Ukraine has exacerbated existing divisions on a diverse array of issues, including support for the regime. Put another way, the impression that Putin now has the full support of the Russian public is simply incorrect.
The war in Ukraine has cemented the Russian-Chinese partnership for the foreseeable future. While focusing all of its efforts to the West, the last thing Russia needs is a confrontation with China.
The challenge for Western policymakers is to avoid viewing Russian activism in the Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa through an exclusively zero-sum lens. The region’s political disarray, complexities, and especially the unpredictability of local rulers all present built-in buffers to Russian influence—as they do to all external players.
Russia has returned as a major actor in the Mediterranean. Yet a closer look at its economic tool kit in this region suggests concerns about Russian economic capabilities are likely overstated.
Getting Russia right—assessing its capabilities and intentions, the long-term drivers of its policy and threat perceptions, as well as its accomplishments—is essential because the alternative of misreading them is a recipe for wasted resources, distorted national priorities, and increased risk of confrontation.
Russia’s assertiveness in the Eastern Mediterranean is part of its broader strategy for undermining the cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union and thus complicating the Western alliance’s ability to operate, plan, and formulate policy.
Russia is in the Mediterranean to stay. As long as the Kremlin remains locked in a tense standoff with NATO, it will aim to prevent the alliance from dominating the region.
Russia has long struggled to overcome its inability to retain talent for homegrown innovation and R&D. As a result, Russia’s global activism leans heavily on tried-and-true tactics.