Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Russia is in the Mediterranean to stay. As long as the Kremlin remains locked in a tense standoff with NATO, it will aim to prevent the alliance from dominating the region.
Smuggling goods across the border between Algeria and Tunisia has created a parallel economy for marginalized border populations. Law enforcement and smugglers alike must navigate these gray zones in state authority.
The United States, Russia, and Iran have chosen markedly different approaches to security assistance in the Middle East, with dramatic implications for statebuilding and stability.
Understanding Algeria’s various Islamist communities—including militant groups, moderate factions, and grassroots movements—offers a window into the country’s uncertain sociopolitical future.
Algeria’s regime has repeatedly adapted the political system in limited ways. But what has worked for the regime up until now may not work indefinitely into the future.
The denial of democratic opportunities, the rise of successful violent movements, and the shifting regional and Islamist contexts make it likely that the coming period of Islamist politics will be dominated by non–Muslim Brotherhood organizations.
Algeria’s scheme to help hold off social unrest by redistributing substantial oil wealth cannot be sustained indefinitely. The regime must reform or face collapse.
As the crisis in Mali threatens to grow into a full-fledged regional security and humanitarian nightmare, nervous neighboring countries are looking to Algeria to lead a conflict management effort.
Morocco’s friends in the West, especially the United States and France, must pressure Rabat to expedite a significant devolution of power to the Western Sahara to limit the threat of instability.
The global aims of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb—an Algerian jihadi group—have been thwarted by the Algerian government’s more effective military strategy and the collapse of al-Qaeda in Iraq.