Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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While international donors are right to focus on supporting civil society in acute crises, their approach has serious limitations. For more effective crisis mitigation, engagement with civic actors must be part of a broader political strategy driven by local dynamics and priorities.
The EU can engage and show solidarity with protesters against the Lukashenko regime in Belarus by providing its civil society with coaching, technology transfers, and financial resources.
The coronavirus pandemic has been a trigger for many autocrats to step up repressive measures. But the poor handling of the pandemic by many non-democratic governments, as well as the longer term economic fallout, spells longer-term political trouble for them.
Belarus and Russia share strong historical ties, but differences between the two countries following the annexation of Crimea call into question how durable this partnership is today.
Twenty-five years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, all of the countries of Eurasia remain in the midst of difficult transitions and face unpredictable futures.
Western policy on Belarus should be both principled and capable of adapting to slowly changing realities on the ground—before polarization gets the better of the country.
The EU has the opportunity to forge a more effective policy in the Eastern Partnership region. Now it needs to harness the courage and vision to make a real difference.
The West must look ahead to when President Lukashenka is no longer in office and help the people of Belarus develop its civil society.
As Belarus faces increased isolation and potential economic collapse, it is time for the international community to come together and seek a least bad outcome for the short term, while laying the foundation for long-term positive change.
While the EU and the United States enacted strong repercussions for the violent crackdowns following Belarus' December presidential elections, long-term stability will require moving beyond the current political stalemate.