Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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The new U.S. administration should avoid fueling unrealistic expectations of a breakthrough and instead seek incremental progress on specific topics based on a set of guiding principles.
The Kremlin’s climate change path boils down to political will—and whether climate change is considered important enough—as well as its ability to engage in serious strategic thinking and policy preparation.
To forge an effective partnership with Moscow, the EU must first understand Russia’s political, economic, and security designs, and how best to deal with another round of Putin.
Putin’s chances of hanging onto power in Russia are good, but he will need to accept a more open and competitive electoral process to avoid further alienating those who are sympathetic to the protest movement.
Making the U.S.-Russian Bilateral Presidential Commission a permanent structure will help ensure continued success in managing relations between the two countries.
Despite the reset, a values gap still exists between Russia and the United States that could limit progress, undermine trust and confidence in the bilateral relationship, and raise difficult issues that cannot be ignored.
While there is virtually no hope that the 2009 Armenian–Turkish Protocols will be ratified soon, both parties should take steps to rebuild confidence and affirm their faith in the process.
While Russia’s short-term economy will largely depend on oil prices and the country’s demographic challenges, its medium-to-long-term outlook will be influenced by the lessons that leaders take from the crisis, which will affect Russia’s economic structure and policies for many years to come.
Russian policy makers need to open space for public debate and engage in substantive discussions on critical global issues, and Western governments and institutions need to open the door to independent Russian voices.
The Obama administration needs a new approach to the Caspian region that provides opportunities for local leaders to engage with the United States in economic and political development.