Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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The new Berlin government is in a difficult spot when it comes to dealing with Russia.
Seen from Moscow, Angela Merkel’s long tenure was a period of relative, if not always palatable, predictability in German-Russian relations. The future of the relationship will depend in no small measure on who succeeds her and how skilled that successor is at the art of statecraft. Merkel is leaving behind very big shoes to fill.
The agreement between Germany and the United States, which at first glance appears to be to Russia’s advantage, is in fact beneficial to all parties—even Ukraine.
Putin phoned IMF chief, asking the Europeans to support Athens in any way possible. It is likely that Obama asked to do the same thing: there is no indication that Greece was ever a point of contention between Russia and the United States—despite Greece’s position on the Ukrainian crisis, its anti-Western rhetoric, and Tsipras’ friendship with Putin
If Merkel is synonymous with Germany, then German political and diplomatic weight has certainly risen to the height of true European leadership.
After another failed attempt to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, all now depends on whether Russia, the United States, and other states can find the political will to take responsibility for global security.
Many in Russia believe that the EU sanctions appeared as a result of the Ukrainian conflict and pressure from Washington. In fact, the reasons for the current deterioration in Russia’s relations with Europe are far more profound. But this does not mean that another—European—front in Russia’s confrontation with the West has now been opened.
History teaches us that conflict is not a natural condition of Russian-German relations. There is a need for greater introspection and moderation in the use of force, both military and economic.
In character and attitude, Germany and Russia are the antipodes in today’s international system. That could explain perhaps both the closeness the two countries have felt for years and the growing confrontation which has come with the Ukraine crisis.
A more confident, post-modern Germany that sees the world in a very different way than Russia is emerging. While illusions are gone, however, interests remain, and they incentivize both sides to work together on a range of issues.