Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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In the aftermath of the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war, the South Caucasus is experiencing a major reset in trade links and economic cooperation. New railway and highway construction projects could bring new life—but who stands to win or lose?
The traditional geopolitical boundaries that have defined the South Caucasus in the post-Cold War era are shifting as the region becomes increasingly connected to the eastern Mediterranean and wider Middle East.
The November 2020 ceasefire agreement halted the war over Nagorny Karabakh, but a sustainable peace agreement remains far from reach. By providing economic support and fostering dialogue and reconciliation, international actors can play a role in this long-term project.
The pact Russia brokered in Nagorno-Karabakh has plenty of holes. Yet while their relations with the Kremlin remain tense, Western powers are better equipped to patch up the agreement’s shortcomings than Russia is, and they have strong reasons for trying to do so.
A successful transition in Armenia will offer a model for other aspiring democracies to chart a multipolar course. There is no better time to use diplomacy and foreign aid to support it.
The sustainability of Armenia’s model of partial democracy is being challenged by growing popular dissatisfaction and a looming generational turnover.
Twenty-five years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, all of the countries of Eurasia remain in the midst of difficult transitions and face unpredictable futures.
There are hidden reservoirs of compromise and consensus between Armenians and Azerbaijanis that are being ignored and can be the basis for a peace agreement—if anyone cares to look for them.
The EU has the opportunity to forge a more effective policy in the Eastern Partnership region. Now it needs to harness the courage and vision to make a real difference.
Twenty years ago, the worst episode of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorny Karabakh occurred near the small town of Khojali, where more than 400 Azerbaijanis fleeing the town were killed by Armenian soldiers or paramilitary fighters.