Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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To mark the first anniversary of the Second Karabakh War, a group of experts from the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies published the book Storm Over the Caucasus. Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, wrote the book’s afterword.
Washington’s recognition of the Armenian genocide is far from the main problem in U.S.-Turkish relations, which have been in crisis now for several years.
Russia will likely watch how the Armenian election campaign unfolds, helping first one side and then the other. It has many levers of influence there, but not enough to assume complete control.
Armenian diplomacy will depend far more on external factors from now on. A multi-vector foreign policy will remain in its national interests, but now that will be easier said than done.
Even as confrontation deepens between Russia and the West in other parts of the post-Soviet space, the Karabakh conflict has its own logic and still compels the geopolitical rivals to work together.
The Armenian protesters are motivated by socio-economic issues and the desire for social justice—not larger notions of democracy that constitute international human rights advocacy.
The solemn day of April 24 is approaching, when Armenians will mark the centenary of the tragedy that befell their nation in 1915, known as the Armenian Genocide.
It will take Iran a long time to make up the ground it has lost in the South Caucasus since the end of the Soviet Union.
The Turkish government’s decision to hold a ceremony to commemorate the Gallipoli battles on April 24, in competition with the Armenian commemorations in Yerevan, looks like a political mistake.
Russia should be watchful of future Armenian-Turkish relations. It should begin to formulate a long-term strategy that could marry its own interests toward the two important states of Turkey and Armenia.