Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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On April 10, Imran Khan’s three-plus years as prime minister of Pakistan came to an unceremonious end. His government fell after losing a no-confidence vote, a standard procedural tool in parliamentary democracies for ousting prime ministers who have lost their majority in the legislature.
Today, however, the world is watching what may be the defining security crisis of a generation unfold, one that risks catastrophic nuclear escalation.
"Pakistan has a very decent working relationship with China, and so I think as more action shifts from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean this could be a recipe for some potential nuclear crisis in that area of the world"
Whether for reasons of security or economics, the slow slide towards collective protectionism in the United States and Europe is unmistakable.
The next crisis between India and Pakistan might originate from an Indian offensive to seize territory in Kashmir. If so, the chances of the conflict escalating to war are more likely than currently predicted.
In the wake of the BJP’s second consecutive single party majority in 2019, which comes on the back of significant political changes at the level of India’s states, the available evidence points in one direction
Real change will come only when the Pakistani polity begins to believe that the costs of the policies pursued by its army far exceed the benefits accruing to Pakistan as a country.
Indian observers hope that the enhanced military capabilities demonstrated in India’s attack will deter future Pakistani terrorism.
India must recognize that any response to the attack at Pulwama can at best mitigate—not eliminate—Pakistani terrorism. But India can do much more to equip and protect its security forces.
If the United States effectively uses its considerable residual leverage in Afghanistan, Pakistan does not try and turn Afghanistan into a weak protectorate, and the Taliban does not overreach inside Afghanistan, there is reason for optimism.