Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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By choosing to emulate certain aspects of U.S. nuclear policy and diverge from others, North Korea is attempting to simultaneously demonstrate a willingness to escalate a conflict while projecting an image of a responsible nuclear possessor that should be accommodated as such in the international system.
At a time when North Korea shows little interest in engagement, both Seoul and Washington can and should take unilateral measures to mitigate the risk of inadvertently prompting nuclear escalation. This would not be altruism but rather in self-interest to reduce the risks of unnecessary inadvertent escalation.
The development and eventual deployment of tactical nuclear weapons by North Korea will represent the most serious negative development for peace and security on the Korean Peninsula since the country’s development of intercontinental-range ballistic missiles capable of ranging the United States.
Deploying such weapons would undercut denuclearization efforts and likely exacerbate arms race on Korean Peninsula
For 28 months afterwards, North Korea implausibly reported zero cases of COVID-19—even as the virus tore through the rest of the world. Like the Chinese Communist Party next door, the Workers’ Party of Korea opted to pursue a zero-COVID strategy premised on sealing off the country’s borders.
Each of these paths could help reintegrate North Korea in the region and convince its leaders that peace and prosperity for the North Korean people can be achieved with less risk. For now, there are clear limits to what is possible so long as Kim Jong Un keeps his government purposefully estranged from the international community.
These North Korean developments have invited well-placed concern in South Korea and the United States that Pyongyang may explore the benefits of nuclear brinkmanship in future crises.
With North Korea resuming a testing campaign for long-range missiles and possibly nuclear weapons, it is critical for the Yoon and Biden administrations to get out in front of a brewing crisis with actions to strengthen the alliance and messaging of solidarity.
As the administration pursues its security and military posture goals in Asia, it continues to focus almost exclusively on allies, partners, and China, the main adversary.
Although the U.S.-South Korean alliance does face significant geopolitical challenges, nuclear proliferation would be an ill-advised solution. South Korean nuclear weapons would likely make the regional security situation more precarious.