Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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In recent months, there has been a flurry of diplomatic movement in the Syrian conflict, as Russia and Iran, the two main allies of Bashar al-Assad, are trying to seize the initiative and pave the way for a new political deal.
Carnegie scholars assess the Middle East in the year ahead, including potential game changers that could have a big impact for the future of the region.
On Christmas Day, the largest Sunni Islamist rebel groups in Syria’s Aleppo Governorate announced that they have united under a joint command. Whatever strategic choices they make, Syria’s bitterly divided rebels will need all the unity they can get to deal with the challenges ahead.
A military confrontation is building up between two powerful jihadist factions, the Islamic State and the Nusra Front, in southern and southwestern Syria and as the balance shifts, the Islamic State stands poised to grow in new regions.
The resettlement of Syrian refugees is a task best carried out on the basis of need and ability, not by sectarian or ethnic preference.
As the wealthiest members of the international community fail to address the Syrian refugee issue, the number of Syrians in need of resettlement will only keep growing.
Jordan has been deeply concerned about the effect of Syria’s civil war on its security. It has taken several counterterrorism measures, but its strategy in combating the threat of radicalism has been flawed.
Iraqis have put their hope in the country’s newly elected prime minister, Haider al-Abadi. To rule Iraq effectively, Abadi must not only take on the Islamic State but also move out of the shadow of his own predecessor.
By inserting divisive rhetoric into the political debate and exploiting an increasingly polarized populace, Tunisian presidential candidates Beji Caid Essebsi and Moncef Marzouki are both helping to undermine the democratic institutions and culture they so vehemently claim to support.
The roller coaster on which Arab countries have ridden since the 2011 uprisings has given a particularly rough ride to indigenous human rights organizations. Embattled since their founding in the 1980s and 1990s, and often accused of carrying out foreign agendas, groups in several countries are now fighting for their very existence.