Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Although the United States and Europe share in interest in promoting political reform in the Middle East, they have not yet worked out whether they can work productively together on this task. Recent efforts to forge joint initiatives have demonstrated a tendency to devolve into lowest common denominator approaches that generate only lukewarm commitment.
President Bush has suggested that other nations follow the example of Libya, which ended links with terrorist groups and surrendered weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems. But there is a second lesson: The United States will forgo its declared interest in democratization if a country takes positive security-related steps and has enough petroleum to offer.
Failing and failed states are a threat to their citizens and to the international community, creating a need for international intervention. In addressing failing states, the international community should concentrate first and foremost on restoring state security.
Recognizing the growing public demand for democratization, the communist leadership of Beijing is prepared to enter a dialogue with Hong Kong democrats. Some in the U.S. Congress want to show solidarity with Hong Kong democrats and toughness toward Beijing by removing beneficial economic treatment that Hong Kong receives. This would be a mistake; better options exist.
The Bush administration is preparing to launch a "Greater Middle East Initiative" at the G-8 summit meeting in June. The time is indeed opportune for engagement on regional reform, but as planned, the initiative fails to establish a basis for genuine partnership and does little to address the real challenges of Arab democratization.
Countries with a combination of a large land mass and a sizeable population tend to be chronically unstable politically and economically. Allowing their problems to fester, the case all too often in the past, is a source of continuing hardship to their citizens and neighbors alike. The international community needs to consider a new approach to the problems of these nations.