Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Trump’s predictions of a “foundation of comprehensive peace” and “dawn of a new Middle East” are premature. If left unattended by Trump or a potential successor, the Israel-Palestinian conflict will fester, leaving Palestinians’ national ambitions unfulfilled.
Israel’s normalization of relations with the UAE and Bahrain is more transactional than transformative.
To date, no clear consensus has been reached on whether natural wealth such as hydrocarbon’s is a blessing or a curse, and no comprehensive methodology has been established.
President Trump has the option to not certify Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal, breaking with European allies and signatories of the deal. If the United States chooses to re-impose sanctions, they will do so without international support, leaving empty sanctions against Iran.
The pro-democracy uprisings that swept across the Middle East in 2011 made clear the need to forge a new social contract between rulers and ruled.
Processes of diffusion and cross-national learning during the Arab Spring were not only employed by protest movements but by the regimes they opposed.
Questions clearly remain about whether the Obama approach in the Middle East reflects applied wisdom or over-learned lessons.
If the United States does not respond to Bahrain’s expulsion of U.S. diplomat Tom Malinowski, it will not just be interpreted as weakness by other countries, it will also damage America’s ability to conduct foreign policy.
The political impasse of Bahrain is a festering wound in the Gulf. If left unaddressed, it will eventually threaten U.S. assets and people.
The conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is not driven primarily by a Sunni-Shiite divide or even Arab-Persian ethnic differences. The conflict is informed by two radically different models of government and two very different visions of regional order.