Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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2014 was a year of crisis. Ebola, ISIS, and Donbas are now part of the global lexicon. Eurasia Outlook experts weigh in on how crises on Russia’s periphery affected the country, and what these developments mean for Moscow in 2015.
Military cooperation between Russia and Pakistan will be very specific and driven by concrete, pragmatic, and limited goals. At the same time, India remains Russia’s priority partner.
Pakistani religious minorities live in fear. This fear can only abate through the Pakistani government’s consistent and tough policies directed at the softening of the blasphemy law and cracking down on any attempts of vigilante justice.
Russia certainly seeks to further its strategic partnership with India and to continue to develop its relations with Pakistan. However, its moves will face growing mistrust in New Delhi and Islamabad if Moscow remains silent on South Asia’s hot-button issues.
Pakistan has been in turmoil for more than 40 days: protests headed by Imran Khan and Tahir-ul-Qadri have taken the country by storm. Yet the protest movement seems to be running out of steam. The weakening of the protest movement has much to do with Prime Minister Sharif’s decision not to crack down on the protests.
Although participation of Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in the recent attacks on a Karachi airport is not confirmed yet, many analysts believe the IMU to be a real force that threatens the countries in the region.
The launch of military-technological cooperation between Russia and Pakistan, in addition to the long-existing ties with India, would provide balance to Moscow’s relations with New Delhi and Islamabad.
Today, many countries have to fight against terrorist organizations, which have roots in the Soviet war in Afghanistan. However, this lesson is still unlearned: in Syria, fighters under Islamic flags have gained support of several countries, but this support will recoil upon the supporters’ own heads.
The International Olympic Committee has lifted the suspension of the Indian Olympic team. The presence of the Indian athletes in the Olympics is important because Sochi is the place where even rivaling states, such as India and Pakistan, have to fairly and peacefully participate in the tournaments.
The slump of interest in South Asia in the West is a positive development, because it makes clearer which countries are the real partners of Afghanistan, India, and Pakistan. Also, if left to themselves these three countries will get a chance to build their relations without external pressure.