Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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The war in Ukraine has not stopped Russia’s activities in Africa. Over the past year, the Wagner Group, in particular, has taken advantage of France’s and other Western countries’ worsening relations with Sahelian states.
The war can continue along three possible scenarios: a stalemate, Ukraine wins, or Russia wins. For now, a Ukrainian breakthrough in the south of the country could be as likely to trigger a dramatic escalation of the war as to end it.
Nothing in Putin’s record suggests that he will stop trying to drag Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of influence. In fact, Putin’s consistent, persistent policy toward Europe and the United States, together with Ukraine’s critical place between Russia and the Western alliance, suggests that he is not about to change course.
Russia has raised the prospect of using Transdniestria to open a second front against Ukraine and to pressure Moldova.
Russian leaders have historically placed their own ambitions above the rights of ordinary Russians, but it isn’t impossible that a post-Putin Russia could look different.
After strong initial support, Sputnik V’s reception in Mexico has cooled amid growing public relations problems. For now, Russia’s ability to use vaccine diplomacy to boost its soft power and economic ties with Mexico has faltered.
If Russia wants to be influential on the continent, African political and economic leaders should demand more of Moscow, not simply settle for the symbolic diplomatic engagements or agreements at which the Russian leadership excels.
In Latin America, Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine diplomacy has had some successes and some failures. Social media promotion strategies tell part of that story.
Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine has been slow to land in Nigeria. To explain why Russia’s vaccine diplomacy fell short, these domestic factors in Nigeria need to be taken into account.
Russian leaders have used deception for strategic ends in ways that shed light on their geopolitical goals