Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Bush soon learned the wisdom of following official US policy on Taiwan. By 2003, he publicly opposed Taiwan’s plans to hold a referendum for fear that it would stoke pro-independence sentiment.
Despite the trilateral hardening of positions, the Taiwan issue is too important to let slip out of control.
With tensions mounting in the Taiwan Strait, Europe is facing a dilemma. While its security concerns in the Indo-Pacific region are rising, it needs to remain focused on the brutal conflict taking place much closer to home in Ukraine.
The circumstances across the Taiwan Strait are very different, but it is worth considering that no one knows how much liberty the United States can take with its One China policy before Beijing will decide its red line has been crossed. Even Xi may not know himself.
The costs of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should convince Washington that it must do all that it can to prevent a military conflict with mainland China.
American involvement in a war for Ukraine might also have broader consequences: It could damage peace in Asia. Many factors inform Beijing’s calculations toward Taiwan; events in Ukraine are unlikely to be decisive.
The risk of the United States and China going to war, leading to a nuclear exchange, is growing by the day. Cyber operations by either or both countries increase the risk significantly, as each side is tempted to use cyber tools to gain warning and an early edge in a crisis.
It is having the side effect of appearing to dismantle the policy of ‘engagement’ with China of the previous seven US administrations and the way they treated Taiwan.
Taiwan’s coronavirus success was based on efficient coordination across the public and private sectors coupled with innovative deployment of advanced technology.
Taiwan is a victim of its past success—dominating important industries, such as semiconductors, but underinvesting in the new fields.