Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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The growing weakness of Russia is one reason for the recent escalation in the decades-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Peace in the Caucasus and the post-Soviet neighborhood is more attainable if there is an stabilizing international security presence.
The European Political Community aims to draw EU’s neighbors into its orbit while leaving enough room to accelerate European integration. Doubts remain over the new platform’s ability to overcome the harsh political realities that sunk similar initiatives over the years.
Unlike Ukraine and Moldova who have been given candidate status, Georgia has been offered a much weaker offer of EU membership perspective. Despite the best efforts of the country’s protestors, the Georgian dream government is unlikely to back down and meet these demands any time soon.
The war in Ukraine has given impetus to a new round of EU enlargement. Concerns about corruption, stagnation, and democratic backsliding tendencies may hamper the union's response but engagement with Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia must be sustained.
Peace talks involving Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be proceeding favorably with the mediation of the European Union. In spite of this breakthrough, questions remain regarding the role of Russia and the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as for the Armenians of Nagorny Karabakh.
Russia's setbacks in Ukraine have limited its capacity to project power in its neighborhood. With the EU as the main mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the two sides should use this chance to seek an elusive peace.
The number of conflicts ending in peacefully negotiated settlements has declined since the 2010s. Cases of states applying militarized and coercive approaches to solving ethno-political conflicts through war and violence are now becoming ubiquitous.
The similarities in images of protesters camped in tents in Armenia and Georgia over the past few months amid political crises in both countries have been striking. They are signs of the political openness and liberalization in both the states.
Armenians want solutions to their problems and a sense of security after a very rough year. Instead, their politicians argue and jockey for power.
A bloody six-week war in Nagorno-Karabakh is over, after a peace agreement brokered by Moscow was signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. As the dust settles, Azerbaijan appears to be the clear winner, while Armenia has suffered a bitter defeat. There are, however, two other powers that have benefited from the conflict and the resolution effort: Turkey and Russia.