Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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The EU’s decision to grant Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine membership perspective signals a more strategic approach to enlargement. But an overhaul of the process is needed to enable staged accession and prevent a stalemate.
Russia’s invasion has mobilized Ukrainians from all walks of life in pursuit of a common goal. But as the war goes on, the country will have to face new economic, political, and social challenges.
Russia’s technology imports are recovering in defiance of Western sanctions. A key element in that equation: illicit, Beijing-supported shipments through Hong Kong.
The IMF approved an unprecedented four-year, $15.6-billion program for Ukraine. While the program is a significant step toward ensuring the country’s economic stability, Ukraine must pursue several reforms for financing to continue. Meanwhile, the international community should make hard commitments beyond 2024.
A decade and a half of constant crises has gradually restructured the power dynamics in the EU institutions. The European Commission is now in the driver’s seat.
While international donors are right to focus on supporting civil society in acute crises, their approach has serious limitations. For more effective crisis mitigation, engagement with civic actors must be part of a broader political strategy driven by local dynamics and priorities.
Russia’s hybrid attacks have strengthened Ukraine’s social cohesion and public resolve. To further enhance Ukrainian resilience, the EU should share best practices, expand sanctions, and support the country’s democratic reforms.
The war can continue along three possible scenarios: a stalemate, Ukraine wins, or Russia wins. For now, a Ukrainian breakthrough in the south of the country could be as likely to trigger a dramatic escalation of the war as to end it.
In the last decade, nondemocratic regimes have received more development assistance than democratic countries. This reveals how donors struggle with autocratization despite a rhetorical commitment to democracy.
Serbia is pursuing EU membership yet continues to cultivate ties with Russia. To secure President Vucic’s cooperation and win over the disgruntled Serbian public, the union must use its leverage in the region.