Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Unless lessons from the Iraq War are fully understood and retained, the United States runs the risk of blundering again. This should be concerning, because the tragedy of Iraq would pale in comparison to an ill-conceived war in today’s era of great power competition.
There has been a norm in international politics since 1945 that countries should not invade one another. The intervention in March 2003 gravely weakened the moral credibility of the United States subsequently, particularly in the global south and in the Middle East in particular.
It may be painful to revisit what drove American leaders, on a bipartisan basis, to want to invade a country that had not attacked the United States and had no plans to do so. Yet without looking back, the country will not move forward with confidence and unity.
The United States should admit past errors frankly and demonstrate, through words and deeds, that it has learned difficult lessons.
Clashes between Turkey and the PKK have recently intensified. By ramping up confrontation with the Kurdish armed movement in Syria and Iraq, Turkish President Erdogan is likely to improve his chances of reelection in 2023.
Hollowed out by corruption and mismanagement and buffeted by adverse economic conditions, authoritarian governments in the Middle East are struggling to deliver the socioeconomic benefits that once pacified their publics.
There is no question that Washington’s position in the broader Middle East was dented by the fiasco in Afghanistan. Ultimately, however, U.S. assets in the region are still unrivaled: the United States’ political and economic influence, hard power, soft power, embrace of multilateral diplomacy, and leadership of a rules-based global order continue to give it the upper hand over all its rivals.
If one thing is certain, it is that key actors in Baghdad, the KRG, Ankara, and Tehran will be keen to test the parameters of America’s new role in Iraq to find out. While this period may be one of great uncertainty, there is more reason to anticipate general continuity than change.
Border crossings and cross-border connections have become essential components in the growing regional contest for influence in Iraq.
The affliction of memory persists, along with the moral injuries borne by the innumerable American soldiers who followed me in Iraq, often experiencing far worse bloodshed and trauma.