Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Tajikistan has no intention of getting into a direct confrontation with the Taliban. Rather, by taking a few more risks than its neighbors, the Tajik leadership is counting on boosting its popularity, both at home and abroad.
It goes without saying that the crisis in Afghanistan will create new risks for the region, but Central Asia has long lived with chaos on its borders, and already has twenty years of experience in dealing with the Taliban.
It would be foolish to assume the American withdrawal from Afghanistan will be repeated everywhere else that there is a U.S. presence.
Nothing remotely resembling the “inclusive government” that the Taliban have promised is likely to appear in Afghanistan, while drug trafficking and religious extremism will mushroom.
The nature of the Afghan problem for Central Asia and Russia lies in Afghanistan becoming a source of instability for the region.
Moscow doesn’t see the current Afghan government as autonomous, and is trying to strike a balance between all the different forces at play there in order to retain its influence if one of those forces collapses.
If common sense prevails and the West resumes its cooperation with Russia, the consolidated response to security threats in Afghanistan will be far more effective than the current disjointed efforts by various countries.
The events in the Middle East in the last few months have muddled the primitive black-and-white picture painted by the advocates for the new Cold War. The modern world presents us with an incredibly complex, conflicting and at times somewhat bizarre picture.
The radical jihadi group known as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. A little bit more than twenty years after it first appeared, this on-going transformation has made it less connected to Uzbekistan, and more to a global jihad.
The problems arising across the globe from militant radical Islam cannot be dealt with at a later date. Russia and the West have vital mutual interests, since they share this common enemy. Given the extent of its involvement, Russia should take the initiative.