Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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The war the terrorists are waging against Russia is for real, and their threats are not empty. Sochi is probably highest on the terrorists’ hit list, and Moscow is another prime target. However, for the time being, the terrorists have focused on some of the softer targets in the south of Russia.
In 2013, Europe was a peaceful place, but elsewhere in Eurasia, things were not as peaceful. This eventful year promises an interesting 2014.
Political crisis, caused by the break between Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and religious leader Gülen, threatens the political future of Erdogan and the AKP party which has governed Turkey exclusively since 2002. It also undermines the image and central role of Turkey in the region.
Every country in Eurasia has to dance with the United States, politically, economically, militarily, and culturally. A recovery of the U.S. economy would mean that friendly relations with it will pay off and that an unnecessary confrontation will not.
In 2013, Poland got a chance to position itself as a major player within the EU, although “its” Eastern Partnership initiative did not fulfill the expectations. In 2014, Warsaw’s foreign policy—if conducted correctly—could be great for Poland from the image perspective.
By pretty much any historical standards, the wider Europe at the dawn of 2014 is incredibly peaceful. However, peace in Europe should be a signal not for Panglossian optimism but for redoubled Europeans to be vigilant against the risk of new conflicts, large and small.
Understanding that the world has found itself in a period of interregnum, or “time without a trajectory,” is the key legacy of 2013.
Edward Snowden revealed a lot not only about the National Security Agency activities, but also about the state of the world.
Putin’s pardon of Khodorkovsky is the demonstration of the absolute power of the Russian president who enjoys his omnipotence and who has found one more way to demonstrate it.
Despite the diplomatic victories of Vladimir Putin, the economic stagnation in Russia is a far deeper and long-term factor.