Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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The government’s initiative to ratify the Rome Statute has become a major test of Armenia’s relations with Russia and Russia’s sway over its peripheries.
In an interview, Sergei Melkonian discusses Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey’s and Israel’s efforts to expand their reach north of Iran.
Relations with Russia will have to be overhauled, since the main subject of discussion—Karabakh—will disappear. For most Armenians, the Kremlin will be seen as an unreliable ally that abandoned them in their hour of need.
Prime Minister Pashinyan is taking risks to address his country’s long-running disputes and overdependence on Russia. But much of what happens next depends on Azerbaijan.
If the Europeans end up securing relative peace for Armenia and corroborate Azerbaijan’s border encroachments, it will be undeniable that Russia is not the only force Yerevan can rely on.
The growing weakness of Russia is one reason for the recent escalation in the decades-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Peace in the Caucasus and the post-Soviet neighborhood is more attainable if there is an stabilizing international security presence.
At some point, Moscow will have to have a serious conversation with Baku about reassessing the existing arrangements in Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan’s favor.
The Kremlin still has the convincing argument that is military force, but as Russia experiences defeat on the battlefield in Ukraine, its hand is now weaker than it once was.
The European Political Community aims to draw EU’s neighbors into its orbit while leaving enough room to accelerate European integration. Doubts remain over the new platform’s ability to overcome the harsh political realities that sunk similar initiatives over the years.
Azerbaijan’s military action in Armenia has gravely damaged chances of a settlement. EU-mediated negotiations, the only viable peace talks, need greater international support.