Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Encouraging developing economies to import capital simply because they are poor not only ignores the economic realities surrounding international financial flows but can also be highly destabilizing and dangerous.
Russia’s recovery from the global economic crisis has been slow, constrained by a number of economic and political structural problems. Until they are resolved, these issues will continue to hinder Russia’s development.
Rebalancing China's growth from investment to consumption is necessary if China is to sustain long-term economic growth. Recent attempts to move in this direction have been insufficient; true rebalancing will require a more fundamental revision of the growth model.
One of the most striking aspects of the global financial crisis has been how often the facts have contradicted what, according to conventional wisdom, was expected to happen.
While the obsession with global rebalancing stokes currency and protectionist tensions, it diverts attention from what is really needed—reforms at home.
Policy makers should heed the lessons of the Great Recession and enact the structural and regulatory reforms needed to protect the world against the next crisis.
While Russia’s short-term economy will largely depend on oil prices and the country’s demographic challenges, its medium-to-long-term outlook will be influenced by the lessons that leaders take from the crisis, which will affect Russia’s economic structure and policies for many years to come.
Developing countries already play a substantial role in world trade, and their significance is only expected to rise. As they diversify and grow as export markets, emerging economies will come to dominate international trade.
The world’s economic balance of power is shifting, as emerging countries rapidly overtake traditional Western powers as the predominant world economies. The recent global recession has only accelerated this trend.
Russia's system of government administration is inefficient, unable to cope with both a transition of political power and the economic crisis at the same time. To ensure its own survival, the Russian regime must modernize itself.