Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Putin’s actions suggest that his true goal is not to conquer Ukraine and absorb it into Russia but to change the post-Cold War setup in Europe’s east. That setup left Russia as a rule-taker without much say in European security, which was centered on NATO.
When the Soviet Union finally fell, it was in a mundane way, as if it had clocked off from a normal day's work.
American involvement in a war for Ukraine might also have broader consequences: It could damage peace in Asia. Many factors inform Beijing’s calculations toward Taiwan; events in Ukraine are unlikely to be decisive.
Unfortunately, prospects for success in all four of these areas are limited. Domestic politics limit the administration's flexibility, and it's hard to imagine even the best deterrence and diplomacy strategy producing stable end states.
For weeks now, Lebanon’s cabinet has failed to meet, showing once again how politics remains far more important to the country’s leaders than urgent economic revitalization.
The crisis in these marginalized border areas is likely to perpetuate social instability.
Iran apparently has not abandoned this ambition to acquire nuclear weapons, but at the same time sees no urgency in achieving this aim, while also seeking to minimize the risks entailed pursuing it. Therefore, Israel's intelligence assessments on the timing of Iran's nuclearization have consistently proven wrong.
Their motivation is quite simple: Too much light on past repression, the Kremlin fears, could lead Russians to question the government’s present-day activities, including the jailing of opposition politicians, repression of civil society, and harsh new laws against independent media and NGOs.
Going forward cooperation between Moscow and Cairo is expected to remain strong across the board. But there won’t be long-term commitment by either party. Russia and Egypt will remain friends but this will not lead to a formal alliance.
In the struggle to combat climate change, the world is fighting the last war. Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, countries have released one and a half trillion metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.