Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Many Arab governments are fueling the very extremism they purport to fight and looking for U.S. cover. Washington should play the long game.
Barack Obama's election was celebrated throughout the Middle East. But enthusiasm could quickly turn to hostility if the new administration does not back up its rhetoric with concrete changes to U.S. Middle East policy on three key issues: Palestine, Iraq, and political reform.
By tacitly conceding that there has been no political progress in Iraq since the launch of the surge, Mr. Bush admits it has failed, but asks for more time. He raises some important fears of the consequences of withdrawal (and some wildly exaggerated ones), while saying nothing about the positive reasons to keep on trying. That is what the upcoming debate must address: more time to achieve what?
As the U.S. “surge” in Iraq enters its sixth month, a new Carnegie Policy Outlook reflects on the full history of the Iraq war and examines the viability of the current strategy.
The central thrust of U.S. policy in Iraq must now be to help Sunnis organize an autonomous region and to convince Shias and Kurds that it is in their interest to make this possible. Paradoxically, announcing now a timetable for the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq could give Washington additional leverage in influencing all sides to accept the necessary compromises.
Iraq's leaders have affirmed their plan to move forward with the Iraqi constitutional process to produce a draft by the August 15th deadline. But rushing to meet the deadline could result in a draft constitution that embodies the varying interests of Iraq’s contending groups but fails to resolve their differences.
In the coming months, Iraq’s newly elected National Assembly will face the major task of writing a permanent constitution for the country. Two other critical issues—personal status law and a security agreement with the United States—may also be thrust on its shoulders. All three issues are directly related to debates about the role of Islam and Islamic law in post-Baathist Iraq.
The elections were a success, but they do not ensure that Iraqis can now agree on a constitutional formula that accommodates the demands of all groups and keeps the country together. Democracy as separation of powers, checks and balances, and protection of individual rights has not proven enough to avoid conflict in other deeply divided societies.