Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Xi Jinping has no other option than to support Vladimir Putin—or someone like him
Alexandra Prokopenko focuses on whether — as some officials are advocating — Russia could actually reduce spending in its next budget despite the war in Ukraine. She also looks at how Yevgeny Prigozhin’s insurrection prompted a huge spike in demand for cash and the rising numbers of Russians moving to Israel.
What China’s Growing Regional Ambitions Mean for Moscow
By solving a Russian domestic crisis, the Belarusian leader has effectively joined the ranks of Russian grandees vying for Putin’s favor by eliminating irritating problems that could distract the president from his high-stakes geopolitical machinations.
A recent revolt has exposed significant flaws in the Russian system—but won’t keep the Kremlin from responding with yet more repression.
Although the immediate threat of revolt has been extinguished, the episode may embolden future challengers to Russia’s status quo
The regime is driven by ideas of supremacy and messianism, nationalism and imperialism. In this respect, there is no difference between Putin and his inner circle and Prigozhin.
However murky and ill conceived, Prigozhin’s mutiny did manage to do one critical thing: it poked a hole in the Kremlin’s campaign to assure Russians that everything is fine — that the economy is booming, the military is focused on winning, and the war in Ukraine won’t come for them.
The Wagner mercenary boss was counting on solidarity from senior army officers, and since he came close to reaching Moscow without encountering any particular resistance, he might not have been completely mistaken.
Putin will have to either continue to act in the precarious role of protector of the “corrupted elite” or, under pressure from the events of last weekend, embark on a purge of that elite.
Andrei Kolesnikov reflects on the current state of the Putin regime, the Russian elite, and systemic liberals in government, as well as the possibility of civil war in Russia. In his opinion, the prevailing scenario in post-Putin Russia will be an exceedingly difficult, but relatively peaceful transition to normalcy.
While saying little, Putin has revealed that military failures are entirely at odds with his vision for the future, while several more rounds of escalation—up to and including strikes on a third country—are something he can envisage.
The excessive optimism of Putin and his ministers smacks of an attempt to convince not even mythical investors so much as themselves that business as usual is possible—and even compatible with their threats to unleash nuclear war.
Alexandra Prokopenko focuses on whether ordinary Russians believe the government’s claims that the economy is on the right track. She also looks at Putin’s latest nuclear rhetoric and Ukraine’s calls to further isolate Moscow from the global financial system.
For years, the Kremlin diminished the role of regional governors. But the war and the president’s self-isolation from real problems have changed everything. Now the enforced publicity of regional leaders may serve to restore their genuine popularity and authority.
Iran’s goal is to modernize its transport infrastructure using Russian money, and Moscow has little choice but to foot the bill.
In the current political system, Prigozhin can only be against the elite so long as he is for Putin. It would take the slightest sign from the president for the Wagner boss to disappear.
Regardless of how worn-out Russians may be, therefore, Putin will stick to his selective perception of reality, looking for reasons for and ways to further escalate his addictive crusade against the current world order.
In conversation with Michael Radunski, the expert talks about China’s arms supplies to Russia, China’s stance on Ukraine – and explains how dangerous the partnership between Beijing and Moscow can yet become for the West.
In occupied Ukraine, upcoming elections highlight the Kremlin’s limited room for maneuver following its declared annexation of parts of Ukraine last year: a costly decision forcing it to pretend that everything is going according to plan.