Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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With Ukraine’s membership in NATO still a distant prospect, Kyiv and the West must reach consensus now on a realistic long-term security arrangement. Codified multiyear commitments to train and equip Ukraine’s military, support for the country’s indigenous defense industry, and clear links to its EU accession process will be key.
The Ukraine war has exposed profound differences in the Russian and U.S. approaches to offensive cyber operations. This can be seen in every aspect from the aims they have set to how they approach collateral damage and blowback.
Russia’s cyber operations in Ukraine have apparently not had much military impact. This was probably for a multitude of reasons: Russia’s offensive limitations, as well as the defensive efforts of Ukraine and its partners; the particular context of this war, as well as structural features of cyberspace and warfare generally.
Russia has achieved far less via cyber warfare in Ukraine than many Western observers expected. Many aspects of Moscow's approach to cyber operations have been misunderstood and overlooked.
The war in Ukraine has cemented the Russian-Chinese partnership for the foreseeable future. While focusing all of its efforts to the West, the last thing Russia needs is a confrontation with China.
The EU Code of Practice on Disinformation was an important experiment that has now come to an end. But what should follow? Without a renewed focus on stakeholder engagement, efforts could stall, putting everyone at risk of disinformation attacks.
A pact between Kiev and the leaders of Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine has limited violence and ensured stability, but at the cost of keeping in place corrupt governing practices and forestalling reform.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 was the latest step in Moscow’s long process of rejection of the post–Cold War Euro-Atlantic security order, reflecting a deeply held view that is unlikely to change anytime soon.
The OSCE has been the most appropriate framework to manage the Ukraine crisis. To continue to play a useful role, the body must adjust its methods and strengthen its toolbox.
In 2014, Russia broke out of the post–Cold War order and openly challenged the U.S.-led international system. Moscow’s new course is laid down first and foremost by President Vladimir Putin, but it also reflects the rising power of Russian nationalism.