Content Syndicationhttps://carnegieendowment.org/rss/?fa=rss https://carnegieendowment.org/rss/solr/?fa=feeds http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile-ak-snc4/174859_62935143720_1836682_n.jpg Thursday, 25 May 2023 02:00:23 EST https://carnegieendowment.org/publications/89900?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Our podcast on markets, the economy and business. This week, we look at claims that digital payments and currencies could dethrone the dollar]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/publications/89900?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Thursday, 25 May 2023 02:00:23 EST Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/89466?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Beijing's economic policymakers largely accept that China must rebalance its economy so that growth is driven more by domestic consumption and less by investment. But once China begins to take seriously the need to rebalance its economy, China's annual GDP growth is unlikely to exceed 2–3 percent for many years, unless there is a substantial increase in the growth rate of consumption. ]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/89466?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Thursday, 06 Apr 2023 04:00:00 EST China, East Asia, Economy, Emerging Economies, Global Trade https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/89466?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The US has to run persistent deficits year after year in order to satisfy the weak demand in the rest of the world.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/89466?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Tuesday, 28 Mar 2023 04:46:26 EST Americas, United States, Economy, Political Reform, U.S. Domestic Politics https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/89466?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Beijing has really serious headwinds as they've mentioned .. but this year is a little bit like 2021.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/89466?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 06 Mar 2023 12:13:00 EST China, East Asia, Chinese Domestic Politics, Economy, Political Reform https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/88829?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Policies are not “protectionist” because they violate WTO trade rules. They are protectionist if they distort global trade by generating beggar-thy-neighbor trade surpluses. Because large, persistent trade imbalances would be all but impossible in a well-functioning global trading system, the irony is that U.S. policies to reduce its deficit actually enhance free trade.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/88829?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Wednesday, 18 Jan 2023 02:12:57 EST Americas, United States, Economy, Global Trade https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/88098?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss China's large structural trade surpluses are the consequence of internal economic imbalances, which means that any external pressure that results in a contraction of its trade surplus must be accommodated by shifts in these internal imbalances.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/88098?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Thursday, 06 Oct 2022 10:35:48 EST China Financial Markets, Resources, China, East Asia, Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87751?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss In the first half of this two-part blog post, I discussed the problems affecting four rural banks in Henan and the subsequent mortgage boycott in parts of China. In the second half, I argue that these crises need to be seen not as isolated events but rather as signs of systemic problems that reveal a great deal about China's finances and balance sheet.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87751?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Wednesday, 24 Aug 2022 07:47:44 EST China, East Asia, Economic Instability, Economy, Emerging Economies https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87664?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The Chinese economy has been wracked by rural bank defaults and boycotts over mortgage payments. In the first half of this two-part blog post, I will explain these events and what they reveal about the health of Chinese markets. In the second part, I will discuss some of the crisis's systemic implications.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87664?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Friday, 12 Aug 2022 04:00:00 EST China, East Asia, Economic Instability, Economy, Emerging Economies https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87664?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The purpose of the rural banks was to support the rural community. The problem is that small banks tend not to be diversified. They tend to be highly concentrated in certain industries and in certain regions.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87664?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 25 Jul 2022 03:12:15 EST China, East Asia, Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87007?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss There is increasingly a consensus in Beijing that China's excessive reliance on surging debt in recent years has made the country's growth model unsustainable. Aside from the economy's current path, there are only four other paths China can follow, each with its own requirements and constraints.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/87007?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Wednesday, 27 Apr 2022 02:16:36 EST China, East Asia, Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/86878?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Giving up use of the U.S. dollar for global trade and reserve accumulation would be very difficult for U.S. adversaries and would require major economic adjustments, though it would be in the best long-term interests of the United States for the global use of the dollar to be more constrained.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/86878?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Tuesday, 12 Apr 2022 04:31:45 EST Economy, Global Trade https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/86397?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Most economists have trouble understanding why too much debt may harm an economy, let alone how much debt counts as too much. To make matters worse, the common practice of comparing vastly different countries' debt-to-GDP levels is not a useful tool for gauging how a particular economy is likely to manage its debt burden.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/86397?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Tuesday, 08 Feb 2022 05:24:53 EST Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85571?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Chinese leaders know that they want to discontinue the country's existing growth model, but they haven't yet landed on what the sustainable alternatives are. Beijing's new common prosperity policy will only help shift domestic demand at the margins, but a full-fledged rebalancing will require a more radical transformation.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85571?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Friday, 15 Oct 2021 04:00:00 EST China, East Asia https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85391?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The impact of Evergrande has caused financial distress to spread faster and more forcefully than Beijing's financial regulators expected, putting pressure on them to move quickly to stop the contagion. But they cannot rescue Evergrande's creditors without also undermining their fight against bad debt.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85391?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 20 Sep 2021 04:00:00 EST China, East Asia, Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85179?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The bezzle, a word coined in the 1950s by a Canadian-American economist, is the temporary gap between the perceived value of a portfolio of assets and its long-term economic value. Economies at times systematically create bezzle, unleashing substantial economic consequences that economists have rarely understood or discussed.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85179?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 23 Aug 2021 04:00:00 EST Economy https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85179?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The pandemic has distorted year-over-year economic data due to “enormous base effects.”]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/85179?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 09 Aug 2021 09:47:14 EST https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/83746?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss A recent study on U.S.-China trade concludes that Trump's trade policies cost the U.S. economy nearly a quarter million jobs. But its obsolete understanding of trade flows ends up pointing trade policymakers in the wrong direction. ]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/83746?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Thursday, 28 Jan 2021 10:17:12 EST Economy, Global Trade https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/83365?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss The idea that trade imbalances are more likely to be the result of credit imbalances than of savings imbalances ignores the role of savings imbalances in creating credit imbalances. When a surplus country demands to be paid for its trade surplus with claims on American assets, the U.S. economy must adjust to create these assets-and one of the most common ways it does so is by expanding credit.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/83365?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Tuesday, 01 Dec 2020 09:21:32 EST https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82991?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss It is easy to assume that sovereign debt forgiveness involves a collective transfer of wealth from the creditor country to the debt-owing country, but this is only true under specific-and unrealistic-conditions. In today's environment, sovereign debt forgiveness mainly represents a transfer within the creditor country. It benefits farmers and manufacturers in the creditor country at the expense of the country's nonproductive savers.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82991?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 19 Oct 2020 11:47:20 EST https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82610?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss There is a widespread belief that a country's national debt burden is sustainable if the interest rate on its debt is less than its expected GDP growth rate. But, in fact, the relationship between interest rates and the GDP growth rate reveals more about the distribution of income in a country than about the sustainability of its debt.]]> https://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/82610?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss Monday, 31 Aug 2020 12:46:06 EST Economy