Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Plentiful resources contribute to long-term success if channeled to the development of institutions, but Azerbaijan, like many other autocracies, is instead using them to burnish its image abroad and cement the status quo.
The government’s initiative to ratify the Rome Statute has become a major test of Armenia’s relations with Russia and Russia’s sway over its peripheries.
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In an interview, Sergei Melkonian discusses Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey’s and Israel’s efforts to expand their reach north of Iran.
The Georgian Dream’s gains from rapprochement with Moscow are quite nebulous, while the risks are very real. But the party itself, which has made a number of unforced errors lately, may see things differently.
Even if Georgia knew nothing about Russia’s decision beforehand, the current arrangement suits both the Kremlin and official Tbilisi: it helps Georgian Dream to hold on to power, while Russia is building on barely existent ties with Georgia that may lead to greater gains for Moscow in the future.
The Georgian government’s attempt to pass restrictive legislation on foreign influence provoked mass protests that ultimately led to the withdrawal of the bill. To anchor Georgia to Western values, the EU should support the country's transition to institutional democracy.
It is critical for the other pro-European groups to unite around common candidates and a platform that clearly renounces Georgia’s reincorporation into the Russian sphere of influence. Georgians want a European future for their country, and hope to wake up from a dream that has become a nightmare.
Relations with Russia will have to be overhauled, since the main subject of discussion—Karabakh—will disappear. For most Armenians, the Kremlin will be seen as an unreliable ally that abandoned them in their hour of need.
In March, they even attempted to pass a law designating pro-Western and pro-democratic civil society organizations as “agents of foreign influence.” With support and encouragement from Moscow, the Georgian government is building an authoritarian state in Russia’s image.