Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Welcome to the first entry in our new blog, Eurasia Outlook, which will be offering analysis and insight on the Eurasia region from a wide array of Carnegie’s experts in Moscow, Washington, Almaty, and other locations, as well as from some of the most interesting commentators on the region.
In the last quarter-century, China’s and Russia’s roles have become reversed. The most stunning fact about this role reversal is that, in this environment, Sino-Russian relations have not stopped improving.
Everyone seems ready to believe in the Chinese success story and China’s transformation into a new global power. Plenty of evidence indicates that the current enthusiasm for China’s rise and its economic growth are just another delusion that will inevitably end up in a new abrupt awakening.
Both Europe and China are overdependent on the United States as a guarantor of the liberal world order. Both need to wake up and accept their global responsibility.
With Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili now in charge, the new Georgian government is firmly focused on its domestic constituency and seems determined to pursue its own line, even if this causes damage to its reputation abroad.
The “Chinese money” fever now sways the entire Eurasia. The Chinese themselves seem to have euphoria over their newly acquired magic wand, the money. But both Eurasian countries and the Chinese may soon realize the limits of the spell.
Given the strained relations between Moscow and Dushanbe, the establishment by Tajikistan of a strategic partnership with China can be seen as a signal to Russia indicating that Tajikistan has other partners ready to offer it assistance of all sorts.
In the case of the relations between China and India the success of their start must be proved by further developments. When mutual concerns and suspicions will emerge less frequently in unofficial discussions in Beijing and New Delhi, then it would be easier to believe the official statements of the leaders of China and India.
In China’s geopolitical vocabulary, those who speak about Eurasia refer to the space of the former Soviet Union. During the more than 20 year since the disintegration of the USSR, Eurasia has been evolving into sub-regions. These various groups hold different meanings for China.
Many fear China’s rise because of the challenge that its authoritarian system, based on a fast growing economy, poses to the West and the U.S. domination of global politics. In fact, such competition can be salutary for both the West and China.