Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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2014 was a year of crisis. Ebola, ISIS, and Donbas are now part of the global lexicon. Eurasia Outlook experts weigh in on how crises on Russia’s periphery affected the country, and what these developments mean for Moscow in 2015.
Eurasia Outlook asked its experts to reflect on the dramatic events of 2014 and to share their predictions for Russia's future and for its role on the global stage going forward.
As one of his final acts in 2014, President Putin signed on December 26 the country’s new military doctrine. The new doctrine makes it clear that even if the West is not officially an adversary, it is a powerful competitor and a bitter rival, a source of most of military risks and threats.
The Ukraine crisis has had an increasingly negative effect on Russia’s relations with Belarus and Kazakhstan, its closest allies and partners in the Customs Union and Eurasian Union.
After the initial shock the Ukrainian crisis brought, Central Asian states have gradually come to the conclusion that they should continue dealing with Russia. Still, none of these states are prepared to be totally controlled by Russia.
President Erdogan strives to find a sound strategy to minimize the current risks in foreign affairs. Despite resentment of the EU and the current stagnation of Turkey’s accession process, the EU retains its influence over Turkey because of the Turkish economy’s great dependence on the EU.
Eurasia Outlook asked several experts what, if anything, can be done by Russian policymakers in order to weather the perfect storm descending on the country’s economy.
After another failed attempt to reach an agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, all now depends on whether Russia, the United States, and other states can find the political will to take responsibility for global security.
Russian participation in the nuclear talks has demonstrated that despite the depth of the Ukrainian crisis and all the existing conflicts between Russia and the West, there are no reasons to consider Russia a purely destructive force that is bent on harming the West.
Ukraine may be heading not toward federalization or decentralization, but feudalization. To avoid this, the focus should not only be on central, macro-level reforms but also on building civil society to make those larger reforms sustainable.