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Turkish President Erdogan has long played Russia and Ukraine against each other, squeezing out the best deal for himself. However, as the fighting intensifies and the West ratchets up the pressure on Vladimir Putin, Ankara is under pressure to finally pick a side.
Policymakers and analysts know that sanctions on their own are unlikely to topple the regime or force Belarus’s president to behave better toward his citizens.
Since October 2020, the European Union has gradually extended its sanctions against Belarus. Aimed to change the calculations and dynamics within the ruling elite, sanctions are now perceived as less important by the Belarusian people given the authoritarian regime's consolidation of power.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s initial anti-lockdown and anti-vaccine approach to the pandemic has caused a significant decline in his credibility. While his stance has since softened, the erosion of trust in government institutions has made it more difficult to stem the virus’ spread.
The last month has been a seismic political moment in Belarus, replete with dramatic scenes recalling other historic European flashpoints. Stunning mass protests erupted in the wake of the flagrantly rigged Aug. 9 elections in which incumbent Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko.
Massive and persistent, protests in the usually quiet country of Belarus have taken the world by surprise and suddenly brought the country to the centre of Europe's attention.
In Russia and Belarus, civil societies are uniting faster than the two countries themselves.
Europe’s commitment to the Eastern Partnership region has been cemented by Russian aggression. Yet, for internal reasons, the EU is trying to avoid the costs linked to the countries’ integration.
The EU needs to realize that its neighborhood policy is a political not a technical tool, operating in a politicized environment where major conflicts take place.
Ukraine and the global crisis over it point to the start of a new period in world politics. Great powers—Russia overtly, China covertly—are challenging the U.S.-dominated order. Also, in the foreseeable future, there will be no common security system in Europe.