Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Xi Jinping has no other option than to support Vladimir Putin—or someone like him
What China’s Growing Regional Ambitions Mean for Moscow
A recent revolt has exposed significant flaws in the Russian system—but won’t keep the Kremlin from responding with yet more repression.
Last weekend’s events in Russia weren’t a revolution or a civil war as some commentators have suggested, but it is much too soon to tell their ultimate impact—in Russia, in the region, and beyond.
However murky and ill conceived, Prigozhin’s mutiny did manage to do one critical thing: it poked a hole in the Kremlin’s campaign to assure Russians that everything is fine — that the economy is booming, the military is focused on winning, and the war in Ukraine won’t come for them.
Putin will have to either continue to act in the precarious role of protector of the “corrupted elite” or, under pressure from the events of last weekend, embark on a purge of that elite.
Andrei Kolesnikov reflects on the current state of the Putin regime, the Russian elite, and systemic liberals in government, as well as the possibility of civil war in Russia. In his opinion, the prevailing scenario in post-Putin Russia will be an exceedingly difficult, but relatively peaceful transition to normalcy.
Alexandra Prokopenko focuses on whether ordinary Russians believe the government’s claims that the economy is on the right track. She also looks at Putin’s latest nuclear rhetoric and Ukraine’s calls to further isolate Moscow from the global financial system.
Regardless of how worn-out Russians may be, therefore, Putin will stick to his selective perception of reality, looking for reasons for and ways to further escalate his addictive crusade against the current world order.
How to deal with this Russia will be a headache for the United States and its allies for years, possibly decades, to come. As to whether Putin’s heirs will be able or willing to fundamentally change course and begin to atone for his crimes—it is, at best, an open question.