Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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The growing weakness of Russia is one reason for the recent escalation in the decades-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Peace in the Caucasus and the post-Soviet neighborhood is more attainable if there is an stabilizing international security presence.
The European Political Community aims to draw EU’s neighbors into its orbit while leaving enough room to accelerate European integration. Doubts remain over the new platform’s ability to overcome the harsh political realities that sunk similar initiatives over the years.
Peace talks involving Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be proceeding favorably with the mediation of the European Union. In spite of this breakthrough, questions remain regarding the role of Russia and the OSCE Minsk Group, as well as for the Armenians of Nagorny Karabakh.
Russia's setbacks in Ukraine have limited its capacity to project power in its neighborhood. With the EU as the main mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the two sides should use this chance to seek an elusive peace.
The number of conflicts ending in peacefully negotiated settlements has declined since the 2010s. Cases of states applying militarized and coercive approaches to solving ethno-political conflicts through war and violence are now becoming ubiquitous.
A bloody six-week war in Nagorno-Karabakh is over, after a peace agreement brokered by Moscow was signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia. As the dust settles, Azerbaijan appears to be the clear winner, while Armenia has suffered a bitter defeat. There are, however, two other powers that have benefited from the conflict and the resolution effort: Turkey and Russia.
The second Karabakh War is seemingly over, and as one side celebrates and another mourns, experts, opinion makers and their ilk are trying to gauge what the Kremlin-brokered, Erdogan-approved truce might bring. How will the power balance change in the region, who are the winners and losers, and, finally, what impact will it have on Georgia? These are the topics GEORGIA TODAY put to one of the Moscow Carnegie Center's most prominent faces, Dmitri Trenin.
Russia and Turkey have brokered a peace deal for the Nagorny Karabakh conflict that greatly enhances their military presence in a region where they were losing influence.
Nagorny Karabakh remains one of the most tragic and persistent disputes in Europe. Unless Armenia and Azerbaijan conclude that resolving the conflict is more in their common interest than persisting with force or allowing others to resolve it for them, it will likely remain unresolved for another generation.
By pledging unconditional support to Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia over Nagorny Karabakh, Turkey’s government is stretching its forces and its budget, but it’s also shoring up its base.