Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Until conditions allow for the right combination of elements to help the country reverse course, the United States and the international community must use consistent, behind-the-scenes support to make sure Tunisia does not sink deeper into autocratization.
Outside powers take a growing interest in this oil-rich African state where the U.S. Embassy has been closed since 2014.
While European governments are focused on Ukraine, they risk diverting aid to Europe at a time when Africa needs it most.
Libya’s acute vulnerabilities to climate change have been exacerbated by years of conflict, corruption, infrastructural decay, and environmental deterioration.
President Saied’s seizure of power has been a major setback for Ennahda. He capitalized on widespread anger at Ennahda by blaming it for much of the failure of Tunisia’s governance since the 2010-2011 Revolution.
Hollowed out by corruption and mismanagement and buffeted by adverse economic conditions, authoritarian governments in the Middle East are struggling to deliver the socioeconomic benefits that once pacified their publics.
But one event is missing from these analyses, an episode that combines political and emotional aspects, and helped crystallize Putin’s distrust of the West, his own sense of vulnerability, and his ultimate decision to return as Russia’s president: the 2011 NATO-led intervention in Libya that resulted in the violent death of the country’s eccentric dictator Muammar Gaddafi.
After using the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to crack down on opposition figures for more than a year, the Algerian authorities are intensifying repression against the last voices of dissent, hoping to put an end to the Hirak once and for all.
The crisis in these marginalized border areas is likely to perpetuate social instability.
Going forward cooperation between Moscow and Cairo is expected to remain strong across the board. But there won’t be long-term commitment by either party. Russia and Egypt will remain friends but this will not lead to a formal alliance.