Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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The next year offers Ennahda a choice. Will it consolidate its position as a major political player in Tunisia, or will its internal divisions deepen?
For Tunisians, the revolution was not about democracy. It was first and foremost about improving their daily lives. And, in this case, the government is failing to deliver.
The nature of the conflict in Tunisia’s northwest differs from the country’s other security challenges in that it mirrors an insurgency rather than a protracted terrorist campaign.
Tunisia’s government has a rocky road ahead. Along the way, the country can look to the West—in particular, to the EU—for support.
The Sisi government’s policies of repression and exclusion are alienating Egypt’s restive population and threatening to push Egyptians into the arms of extremist groups.
The highly localized nature of the Syrian conflict means that its evolution and eventual resolution will elude the control of outsiders.
Despite its contradictions, Tunisia’s new constitution has paved the way for effective reform. But more work must be done to truly put the country on a stable, democratic path.
The armed rebellion in Syria has not lost its sting, but it remains considerably less than the sum of its parts.
Four factors help explain how Tunisia was able to reach a landmark political compromise and put its democratic transition back on track.
The Assad regime is clawing its way back to a position of dominance in the Syrian conflict. But it can only maintain that position as long as the armed conflict endures.