Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Bilateral arms control between the United States and Russia now rests entirely on New START, which will expire in 2026 if not sooner. What steps could build on this treaty, and how can China and other nuclear states be brought into the arms control process?
Under what conditions does nuclear latency—the technical capacity to build the bomb—enable states to pursue effective coercion? And what are the consequences of using nuclear and rocket technology as a bargaining tool in world politics?
To try to find common ground, this report presents nine detailed practical measures that—implemented individually or as part of a package—would help address each state’s specific security concerns and the shared dangers of arms racing and inadvertent escalation.
The consolidation of nuclear and missile capabilities by North Korea points to the need for a new strategy to mitigate the potential for conflict: to pursue progress toward peace and denuclearization simultaneously.
A potential five-year extension of the treaty is welcome news, but there is still more work to be done on reducing nuclear risks, halting arms races with Russia and China, and keeping Americans safe.
After the end of the INF Treaty, the United States and its Allies in Europe and East Asia face a choice of what to do to enhance security: give arms control another chance or provide the ground for another missile buildup.
To quickly lower the risk of nuclear escalation, manage arms racing, and avoid a breakdown in future treaty negotiations, the United States, Russia, and China should consider five politically binding proposals to build transparency and confidence.
There are three guiding principles that can help make future arms control dialogues more successful.
The United States and China must cooperate on arms control. But to do so, the two countries need an innovative approach.
Strategic arms control is more vital than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Pragmatic negotiations toward a follow-on treaty need to begin now.
To better understand the prospects for U.S.-China arms control, The Diplomat’s senior editor, Ankit Panda, spoke to Tong Zhao, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, based at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing.