Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Moldova lacks technical and administrative capacity required for EU accession. Brussels needs to do much more to put its European perspective on track.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is helping to consolidate Moldovan society in favor of EU integration and emancipation from Moscow, and no future leadership will be able to ignore that consensus.
The citizens of Gagauzia are preparing to elect their next governor. A victory of one of the many pro-Russian candidates could destabilize Moldova and derail its EU aspirations.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompted the EU to break several taboos, including offering candidate status to Ukraine and Georgia. The enlargement process, which has stalled over the past decade, is likely to be hindered by the complex revisions required, including the question of voting rights.
The European Political Community aims to draw EU’s neighbors into its orbit while leaving enough room to accelerate European integration. Doubts remain over the new platform’s ability to overcome the harsh political realities that sunk similar initiatives over the years.
The democratic quality of states, including those in the West, have been declining as of late. More effective diplomatic engagement and political support from the international community may help where governments enforce restrictions on civil society.
Russia has raised the prospect of using Transdniestria to open a second front against Ukraine and to pressure Moldova.
Unlike Ukraine and Moldova who have been given candidate status, Georgia has been offered a much weaker offer of EU membership perspective. Despite the best efforts of the country’s protestors, the Georgian dream government is unlikely to back down and meet these demands any time soon.
The war in Ukraine has given impetus to a new round of EU enlargement. Concerns about corruption, stagnation, and democratic backsliding tendencies may hamper the union's response but engagement with Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia must be sustained.
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