Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Central Asia stands at a pivotal crossroads, with the next few months likely to set the course for the region going forward.
The Uzbek regime is losing stability because its objectives increasingly diverge from the public expectations that President Mirziyoyev himself worked to create.
The political elites of Central Asia view the invasion of Ukraine through the prism of their own interests, top of which is the preservation of their own regimes. For this reason, they will continue to show loyalty to Putin.
The power transfer in Turkmenistan from father to son and back again is a stark example of how fragile the process of transition can be in authoritarian systems, even when the ideal conditions have been created.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are reconfiguring their relationships with each other, with the Russian government, and with the rest of the world.
Russia is now in a far worse negotiating position than in 2014. Finding itself at the mercy of a monopsonist buyer, there is very little it can actually do.
The EU has been stepping up its engagement with Central Asia, including on regional cooperation, energy, and connectivity. But to gain more clout, the union must present a positive alternative to powers like China and Russia.
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